Tag Archives: housing economy

iEmergent revises 2024-2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast downward

Purchase mortgage originations fell short of expectations amid stubbornly high interest rates, low housing affordability

DES MOINES, Iowa, Sept. 25, 2024 (SEND2PRESS NEWSWIRE) — iEmergent, a forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries, today announced downward revision of its 2024–2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast. Updated to reflect ongoing economic conditions, iEmergent now expects lower-than-anticipated growth for the next two years, particularly in the purchase mortgage market, while refinance volumes are projected to rise due to a gradual decline in mortgage interest rates.

Image caption: Historical and forecasted first-lien mortgage originations for 1–4 family homes.

The revision comes as part of iEmergent’s quarterly forecast update, which integrates the latest economic data and market trends into the company’s detailed projections for mortgage originations across the United States. Using its proprietary forecasting methodology, iEmergent has adjusted its forecast for 2024 to reflect weaker-than-expected performance in purchase mortgage originations, which fell short of early-year estimates due to persistently high interest rates and continued housing affordability challenges.

According to iEmergent Chief Economist Mark Watson, 2024 purchase mortgage originations are now projected to decrease in loan count compared to 2023, though an increase in average loan sizes will lead to a modest 3.5% increase in purchase volume. Meanwhile, refinance originations are expected to rise 48% from their 2023 lows, driven by the recent softening of mortgage interest rates.

Looking ahead, iEmergent forecasts purchase volumes will grow by 7% in 2025, while refinance originations will increase by 37%, reflecting a more favorable interest rate environment. By 2026, overall mortgage origination volumes are expected to show modest recovery as housing affordability gradually improves.

“The economic boon of the COVID-era refinance boom has been underappreciated in its impact on keeping interest rates higher for longer than anticipated,” said Watson. “While this has helped maintain economic strength, it has also suppressed mortgage origination volumes. We expect rates to finally start declining in the months ahead, offering some relief for both potential buyers and those looking to refinance.”

The updated 2024–2026 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast is now available within iEmergent’s Mortgage MarketSmart platform, which allows lenders to map future lending opportunities at the census tract level and overlay them with historical loan production data, demographic insights, property listings and more.

Read Mark Watson’s latest blog for more detailed analysis and commentary on the forecast update.

Methodology

For more than two decades, iEmergent has been predicting mortgage market trends with a level of precision that surpasses even the industry’s most trusted forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. In fact, in almost 70% of the nation’s 84,414 census tracts, iEmergent’s U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast has proven accurate to within 10 loans.

iEmergent’s proprietary forecasting method is a hybrid of several traditional demand forecast models. Many variables go into these forecasts, but there are two fundamental elements: first, the Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate (PMGR), which is the rate at which an individual market produces purchase mortgages. Second, the homebuyer pool: the number of households that are ready, willing and able to buy a home. By evaluating the relationship between each census tract’s homebuyer pool and PMGR, probability theory can be applied to estimate the number of purchase mortgage loans and dollars that will be originated in that market.

About iEmergent

Founded in 2000, iEmergent provides mortgage lending forecasts and analytics to the lending, housing and real estate industries. The company offers an extensive variety of forecast and market intelligence products, including Mortgage MarketSmart, a visualization tool that helps lenders quantify how mortgage markets will change. For more information, visit https://www.iemergent.com.

X/Twitter: @iemergent #housingfinance #housingequity #housingeconomy #mortgage #HMDA #fairlending

NEWS SOURCE: iEmergent

This press release was issued on behalf of the news source (iEmergent), who is solely responsible for its accuracy, by Send2Press Newswire. Image, if any, was provided by the news source and not this website or the wire service. Information is believed accurate, as provided by the news source, but is not guaranteed.

To view the original story, visit: https://www.send2press.com/wire/iemergent-revises-2024-2026-u-s-mortgage-origination-forecast-downward/

Economic Growth and Public Policy Propel Homeownership Rates

WASHINGTON, D.C. /ScoopCloud/ -- In the first of a three-part series on the impact of economic growth and public policy on homeownership rates, housing policy consultant Allen Jones, Managing Director, Housing Finance Strategies, provides commentary on the drivers of recent increases.

"Today's economic climate combined with private sector recognition of the value of all hard-working Americans is lifting homeownership prospects across the board," says Jones.

The housing crisis of 2008 wreaked havoc on millions of individuals and families. The allure of building generational wealth proved illusory to many who saw the promise of homeownership slip away, taking with it down payments and credit ratings.

Some communities are still recovering, but recent data published by the Census Department may point to a glimmer of light to those hardest hit by the crisis, including African American homeowners. With statistics now supporting incremental improvement to African American homeownership rates from Q4 2016 to Q4 2019, rising from 41.7% to 44% in 2019, it is appropriate to examine the trend and consider the macro factors involved.

It has been said that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that may be true in this case. The US Department of Labor's G. Bryan Slater, Assistant Secretary for Administration, notes "Historically disadvantaged groups are benefiting the most from today's tight labor market. In 2019, the unemployment rates for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans all hit record lows. Those without a high school degree and people with disabilities also set record-low unemployment rates last year."

It is clear that the increasing labor participation rate is a boon to all, but add to it pointed economic incentives such as the federal government's Opportunity Zones and the private sector's Second Chance programs, a case can be made that homeownership rates in all socio-economic groups may be the beneficiary of economic success.

Yet, even as many housing experts acknowledge the positive direction of African American homeownership, they lament the burgeoning gap compared to white homeownership which is some 28 percentage points higher. Policy makers therefore must continue to sharpen the pencil to level the playing field - or widen it - so that homeownership opportunities can be aspirational for all.

The 2020 Presidential campaign is already producing an overdue discussion on criminal justice reform that follows bi-partisan legislation passed in December 2018 called The First Step Act. That bi-partisan legislation was designed to prepare inmates to successfully rejoin society and is supported by a broad coalition spanning the political spectrum, including business groups, faith-based organizations, law enforcement and State and local leaders.

In fact, ahead of the legislation, a big bank announced several major steps to encourage second-chance hiring for those with criminal records. The bank is officially "banning the box"-removing all questions about criminal records from its job applications. The bank also launched a new "policy center," and its first agenda item is reforming rules that effectively bar former felons from employment, in finance and elsewhere.

A further alignment of government and private sector efforts must continue to grow economic investment so that all workforce participation increases and the opportunities for homeownership broaden. Because what Jack Kemp said in 1989 rings just as true today: "Homeownership is essential, we think, to the American dream."

About Housing Finance Strategies:

Housing Finance Strategies provides currency to a broad constituency of mortgage influencers. These include mortgage company executives, fintech leaders, regulatory compliance senior management and public policy officials working in the Capitol and for Washington, D.C. based trade associations and academics.

Learn more about Housing Finance Strategies at: https://housingfinancestrategies.com/

Media may contact: Allen Jones, Managing Director, Housing Finance Strategies, at: (202) 441-1854.

*PHOTO link for media: https://www.Send2Press.com/300dpi/20-0225s2p-allen-jones-300dpi.jpg
*Photo caption: Allen Jones, Managing Director, Housing Finance Strategies.

In the first of a three-part series on the impact of economic growth and public policy on homeownership rates, housing policy consultant Allen Jones, Managing Director, Housing Finance Strategies, provides commentary on the drivers of recent increases.

Related link: https://housingfinancestrategies.com/

HousingWire Honors ARMCO as a 2017 HW TECH100 Mortgage Technology Vendor for the Third Straight Year

POMPANO BEACH, Fla. /ScoopCloud/ -- ACES Risk Management (ARMCO), the leading provider of financial quality control and compliance software, announced that HousingWire has again recognized ARMCO as a top 100 mortgage technology provider. The annual HW TECH100(TM) is designed to recognize the most innovative technology firms in the U.S. housing economy.

HousingWire states that the mortgage industry is leveraging technology like never before, streamlining processes across the spectrum of lending, servicing, investing and real estate. The combination of regulatory pressure and consumer expectations have set a high standard for efficiency and transparency, requiring a significant investment of time, money and talent to hit the right notes for both.

"The companies that make up the 2017 HW TECH100(TM) are the cream of the crop of the entire housing industry, from real estate to mortgage lending, servicing, and investment," said HousingWire Senior Financial Reporter Ben Lane. "These companies aren't just taking part in the housing industry's technological revolution; they're leading it."

ARMCO is well-known for its award-winning ACES Audit Technology(TM), which is the leading web-based quality control software solution for the mortgage industry. The company also recently started assembling and releasing its proprietary Mortgage QC Industry Trends Report on a quarterly basis. The report represents a detailed analysis on loan files and defects trending as well as valuable data that is captured in the ACES Analytics benchmarking system.

"We're very pleased to again be recognized by HousingWire as a technology leader in the mortgage industry," said Avi Naider, chairman and chief executive officer of ARMCO. "We're constantly innovating and enhancing our solution set to deliver the most value for our clients and this award reflects our ongoing efforts."

"The companies in the 2017 HW TECH100 cover the entire mortgage finance spectrum. There's hardly a corner of our industry that hasn't been transformed in some way, either by fintech startups focusing on a specific software need or legacy companies evolving to compete in the new environment," said HousingWire Magazine Editor Sarah Wheeler. "Now more than ever, these companies are delivering the innovation this industry needs to do its most important job: supporting the American Dream."

ARMCO serves multiple markets in the mortgage space that include origination, servicing, capital markets and outsourcers.

About ARMCO:

ARMCO - ACES Risk Management delivers web-based audit technology solutions, as well as powerful data and analytics, to the nation's top mortgage lenders, servicers, investors and outsourcing professionals. A trusted partner devoted to client relationships, ARMCO offers best-in-class quality control and compliance software that provides U.S. banks, mortgage companies and service providers the technology and data needed to support loan integrity, meet regulatory requirements, reduce risk and drive positive business decisions. ARMCO's flagship product, ACES Audit Technology(TM), is available at any point in the mortgage loan lifecycle, to any size lender, and is user-definable. ACES standardizes audit requirements, ties pre-funding reviews to post-closing quality control audits, enables seamless trend analysis, identifies credit, compliance and process deficiencies and helps create manageable action plans.

For more information, visit http://www.armco.us/ or call 1-800-858-1598.

About HousingWire:

HousingWire is the nation's most influential industry news source covering the U.S. housing economy, spanning residential mortgage lending, servicing, investments, and real estate operations. The company's news, commentary, magazine content, industry directories, and events give more than one million industry professionals each year the insight they need to make better, more informed business decisions. Winner of numerous awards, including a 2012 Eddie Award for national editorial excellence in the B2B Banking/Business/Finance category, HousingWire has been recognized for excellence in journalism by the Society of Business Editors and Writers, the American Society of Business Press Editors, the National Association of Real Estate Editors, and Trade Association Business Publications International. Learn more at http://www.housingwire.com/.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Joe Bowerbank
Profundity Communications, Inc.
949-378-9685
jbowerbank@profunditymarketing.com

ACES Risk Management (ARMCO), the leading provider of financial quality control and compliance software, announced that HousingWire has again recognized ARMCO as a top 100 mortgage technology provider. The annual HW TECH100(TM) is designed to recognize the most innovative technology firms in the U.S. housing economy.